Why It Rained When Your Forecast Said '10 Percent' | The Weather Channel (2024)

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Why It Rained When Your Forecast Said '10 Percent' | The Weather Channel? ›

If there's a 10 percent chance of rain, it means the current conditions yield rainfall one out of every 10 times observed. If it's 20 percent, then you'd see rain two out of every 10 times, and so on.

So the 10% means that if you pick a random point in the area at that time, there will be a 10% chance that it is raining. It does not mean that at a specific point, there's a 10% chance that it will rain at some point doing the next hour. The 10% refers to a pecentage of the area, not a percentage of a time period.

What does this "40 percent" mean? ...will it rain 40 percent of of the time? ...will it rain over 40 percent of the area? The "Probability of Precipitation" (PoP) simply describes the probability that the forecast grid/point in question will receive at least 0.01" of rain.

According to a study by ForecastWatch, The Weather Channel has an overall accuracy rate of 81% for local forecasts. This means that their forecasts were correct 81% of the time, which is considered to be a high level of accuracy in the weather forecasting industry.

Confidence multiplied by the percentage of the area forecasted equals the "percentage of precipitation." So if there's a 100% confidence that 30% of the area will see rain, then it's a 30% chance [(1 x 0.3)100 = PoPs].

Rainfall rate is generally described as light, moderate or heavy. Light rainfall is considered less than 0.10 inches of rain per hour. Moderate rainfall measures 0.10 to 0.30 inches of rain per hour. Heavy rainfall is more than 0.30 inches of rain per hour.

The percent chance of rain (or snow or thunderstorms) is called the “Probability of Precipitation,” or PoP. The figure refers to the chance that the forecast area will see at least 0.01 inches of rain, according to the National Weather Service.

A chance of rain refers to a probability between 30% and 50%. A likely chance of rain would be between 60% and 70%. And with any probability of precipitation higher than 75%, the forecaster has the option of describing it as “periods of rain,” “occasional rain” or simply “rain,” Blier said.

That is 1/50th of an inch, or a half millimeter. It would lightly wet the sidewalks if all of it fell within a few minutes. You would not be soaking wet if you were outside during this downpour. If that 0.02″ fell over an hour, it might go unnoticed, though the sky may be overcast.

July 29, 2021. IBM and its subsidiary The Weather Company continue to be the overall most accurate weather forecast providers worldwide, according to a new study. The Weather Company includes weather.com and other digital properties of The Weather Channel.

What weather app is 100% accurate? ›

AccuWeather is globally recognized for its superior accuracy. It offers minute-by-minute precipitation forecasts for the next two hours, coined as MinuteCast, and provides extended forecasts up to 15 days in the future.

If the chance of rain is less than 50%, there's a greater likelihood of it staying dry than not. For example, a 20% chance of rain means there's an 80% chance of dry weather. On the other hand, an 80% chance of rain means there's only a 20% chance of dry weather.

So the PinPoint Weather team is here to help explain what those percentages mean so you can plan better for inconvenient downpours. Let's use 60% as the rain chance in the forecast. That means 60% of the entire area (Central Florida) could see measurable rain at some point in the day, while the other 40% won't.

40%-50% - SCATTERED - Roughly half of the area will encounter a shower or storm. 60%-70% - NUMEROUS - Much of the area is covered so it's likely you will get wet. 80%-100% - WIDESPREAD - The entire area is covered with showers and storms so everyone gets rain!

If there's a 10 percent chance of rain, it means the current conditions yield rainfall one out of every 10 times observed. If it's 20 percent, then you'd see rain two out of every 10 times, and so on.

1/10 (0.10) of an inch of rain – A light rain for 30-45 minutes, moderate rain for 10 minutes or heavy rain for 5 minutes. Small puddles would form but usually disappear after a short while.

An “80% chance of rain” means an 80% chance that rain will fall somewhere within the forecasted area. Rain refers to 0.01 inch or more.

LET'S TALK POP

"It simply means that if this exact same storm system went through 10 times, 8 out of 10 times it would bring you precipitation within that forecast period," Chris says. If the POP drops to 30 per cent in the afternoon, "there's only a 3 out of 10 chance you'll get any precipitation from this scenario."